USDA provides 2024 crop outlook
On Feb. 15-16, the U.S. Department of Agriculture held its 100th Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum in Arlington, Va.
Themed “Cultivating the Future,” the two-day hybrid event offered valuable insight into the agency’s expectations for the ag industry over the coming year.
On the first day of the forum, USDA staff presented on the 2024 grains and oilseeds outlook.
Corn
Members of the USDA Oilseeds, Feed Grains, Wheat and Rice Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee noted the U.S. corn outlook for 2024-25 forecasts lower production, greater domestic use, increased exports and higher ending stocks.
“The corn crop is projected at 15.04 billion bushels, down about two percent from the prior year’s record. Corn planted area is forecast at 91 million acres, down 3.6 million from a year ago,” the committee stated. “The yield projection of 181 bushels per acre is based on a weather-adjusted trend assuming normal planting progress and summer growing season weather. With beginning stocks up sharply from the prior year, total corn supplies are forecast at a record 17.23 billion bushels.”
Additionally, U.S. corn use is expected to be higher than year-ago levels.
According to USDA, food, seed and industrial-use corn will be slightly higher at 6.8 billion bushels; corn for ethanol is forecast higher at 5.4 billion bushels and feed and residual use-corn will increase one percent to 5.75 billion bushels.
Exports are up 50 million bushels to 2.15 billion, and ending stocks are projected at 2.53 billion bushels, up 360 million from the same time last year. If realized, this would be the highest since 2005-06.
The season-average farm price (SAFP) is forecast at $4.40 per bushel, down 40 cents from the year before.
Soybeans
Overall, the 2024-25 soybean outlook includes higher supplies, use and ending stocks, as well as lower prices compared to the previous year, according to USDA.
The committee explained both soybean production and supplies are forecast eight percent higher than that of 2023-24, with production at 4.5 billion bushels and supplies at 4.8 billion bushels.
The department expects soybean exports up 155 million bushels from the 2023-24 forecast at 1.87 billion bushels and soybean ending stocks up 120 million at 435 million bushels.
“Large global supplies are likely to lead to lower soybean prices, spurring national demand, but the U.S. share of exports is expected to remain below 30 percent of global exports due to higher South American supplies,” said the committee.
Likewise, large global supplies will result in the highest stocks-to-use ratio since 2019-20 at nearly 10 percent, according to USDA, and the soybean SAFP is projected at $11.20 per bushel, down $1.45 from 2023-24.
Wheat
Wheat supplies, use and ending stocks are also expected to increase in the coming year.
In fact, USDA noted U.S. wheat production is forecast five percent higher at 1,900 million bushels, which, if realized, would be the largest harvest in five years.
“Total wheat planted area for 2024-25 is projected at 47 million acres, down 2.6 million acres from last year. Harvested area is forecast at 38.4 million tons and is based on the 10-year average harvest-to-plant ratio,” stated the committee.
“The all-wheat yield for 2024-25 is projected up two percent from last year at 49.5 bushels per acre and is based on a long-term linear trend,” the committee continued. “After six years of successive reductions, beginning stocks are forecast to increase in 2024-25 to 658 million bushels, an increase of 15 percent from the previous year. A larger crop and higher beginning stocks are expected to raise 2024-25 supplies by six percent to 2,678 million bushels.”
USDA further noted total use is expected to increase two percent from the previous year to 1,909 million bushels, with domestic use forecast lower and wheat exports expected to rebound from last year’s 52-year low.
Ending stocks are expected to reach 769 million bushels, up 17 percent from last year and slightly above the five-year average.
The SAFP is projected at six dollars per bushel, down $1.20 from 2023-24 and the lowest since 2020-21.
Rice
The USDA Oilseeds, Feed Grains, Wheat and Rice Interagency Commodity Estimates Committee noted they expect the 2024-25 U.S. rice outlook to include higher supplies and beginning stocks, unchanged total production and record-high imports.
“Despite higher exports and domestic use, ending stocks are projected rising to the highest level since 2014-15,” they note.
The committee projects total 2024-25 rice planted acreage at 2.9 million acres and total harvested rice area at 2.85 million acres.
Assuming normal weather and planting dates, the average all-rice yield is forecast at 7,641 pounds per acre, unchanged from last year, while all-rice total supplies are projected to increase 13 million hundredweight (cwt) to 304.5 million.
USDA expects total 2024-25 use up four percent to 258 million cwt, with total domestic use at a record-high 167 million cwt.
“All-rice ending stocks are forecast to increase nine percent to 46.5 million cwt,” stated the committee. “The 2024-25 all-rice SAFP is forecast to decline by $1.60 per cwt to $16.80 with reductions in both long-grain and medium- and short-grain prices.”
Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.
