LMIC provides update on sheep and lamb inventory and markets

On July 10, North Dakota University and University of Minnesota Extension services partnered to  host a webinar with guest speaker Tyler Cozzens, PhD and director at the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), who discusses the current sheep and lamb inventory and market conditions. 

Overall, Cozzens notes the U.S. sheep and lamb inventory is continuing to decline, with overall slaughter numbers up and cold storage supplies tracking lower.

National inventory

To begin, Cozzens references the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s Sheep and Lamb Inventory report, published on Jan. 1, which shows all sheep and lambs in the U.S. totaling  5.03 million head.  

Additionally, the report shows the national sheep and lamb inventory for 2024 is down around two percent from the year prior, while breeding sheep and lambs are also down two percent, indicating producers are further reducing herd numbers. 

“Overall, sheep and lamb populations are in a general downward trend and will likely be for the next 20 to 30 years,” Cozzens states. “My prediction is we will be sitting at about five million head by Jan. 1, 2025, which is another one to two percent decline from where we are now.” 

Cozzens also points out many of the nation’s sheep are concentrated across Montana, Idaho, Wyoming, Utah and Colorado, with big populations in California and Texas. 

“Areas with high sheep and lamb populations saw declines of roughly one to nine percent from year-ago levels,” he says. 

Drought, forage supplies and crop conditions

Cozzens continues, “One of the big things I want to talk about are forage and crop conditions and feed availability, which shapes producers’ decision making.” 

According to the U.S. Drought Monitor, nationwide drought conditions are tracking similar to last year’s levels and slightly below the five-year average. 

In Western states, the percentage of poor to very poor range and pasture conditions caused by drought has increased over the past few weeks compared to 2022 but is lower than the five-year average. 

“Since the start of the reporting season, Great Plains states like the Dakotas and Minnesota are definitely tracking below last year and the five-year average,” Cozzens says. “I would argue range and pasture conditions are very good compared to what we have seen in the past few years.” 

“In the Southern part of Kansas, Oklahoma and Texas we have seen some improvement over the past few weeks, but overall conditions in this region are tracking in line with the five-year average – it’s nothing too surprising,” he continues. 

With this, Cozzens notes overall hay supplies and stocks are in good shape, with May 1 hay stocks up substantially from year-ago levels.

“This higher availability of feed is reflected in hay prices,” Cozzens says. “May prices were about $200 per ton, which is in line with the five-year average but nearly $80 below where they were a year ago, so we are seeing some relief.” 

He notes corn prices have also trended lower, averaging around $4.50 per bushel, which is significantly lower than the seven dollars per bushel reported at the beginning of 2023. 

“When mapping out futures prices, the expectation is corn prices will track at about four dollars for the rest of the year and into 2025,” he says. 

Sheep and lamb supply

Although the national sheep and lamb inventory has continued to trend downward, Cozzens notes overall weekly slaughter year-to-date for the first six months of the year is up about four percent and is expected to remain higher throughout the remainder of the year. 

He explains a large part of this is due to a 12 percent increase in mature sheep slaughter. 

“It’s twofold – we are seeing higher sheep and lamb slaughter but lower dress weights,” he states, noting the average dress weight is down two pounds or 12 percent year-to-date. 

Despite these high slaughter numbers, Cozzens says overall cold storage is down seven percent, indicating demand is high and product is moving through the supply chain.

“If we started to see cold storage track lower, it might mean demand is going down and consumers aren’t purchasing as much lamb,” he explains. “But, the lambs that are being fed and slaughtered are moving through the supply chain and demand is holding strong.” 

Check out next week’s edition of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup for more on Cozzen’s outlook for the sheep and lamb industry.

Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.