LMIC discusses lamb price outlook for second half of the year

On July 10, Extension services at North Dakota State University and the University of Minnesota held a joint webinar featuring Tyler Cozzens, PhD and director of the Livestock Marketing Information Center (LMIC), to discuss the current sheep and lamb inventory, market conditions and his expectations for the second half of the year. 

In the first half of the webinar, Cozzens notes U.S. sheep and lamb numbers are in a steady decline, overall slaughter numbers are up and cold storage supplies are tracking lower.

To wrap up the presentation, Cozzens discusses current and future lamb prices, which seem to be relatively strong. 

Cutout values  

To begin, Cozzens points out overall lamb prices for the first half of the year have been tracking between $4.60 to $4.80 per pound, which is up nine percent or $40 dollars per hundredweight (cwt) from the year prior. 

Additionally, he notes 2024 lamb prices have not seen a lot of seasonality, and although supplies have been low, demand is holding strong and product is moving through the supply chain. 

“My prediction is cutout values will remain fairly strong throughout the second half of the year,” he states. 

Cozzens breaks this down further, analyzing individual primal cuts. 

He notes boxed lamb shoulder prices are holding steady at or just above four dollars per pound, up 13 percent or $45 per cwt from 2023.

“I don’t expect shoulder prices to move lower,” he says. “And, these prices are definitely supporting the high cutout value we have seen over the past six months and will likely see for the next few months moving forward.” 

Cozzens says the story is similar for boxed lamb single leg prices, which are up 27 percent or $114 per cwt from last year  and boxed lamb loin prices, which are up 13 percent or $81 per cwt. 

Due to seasonality, Cozzens expects loin prices to trend upwards during the second half of the year, reaching around $730 per cwt. 

“The rack is another cut that has been tracking above where we were a year ago,” he says. “It is up six percent or $59 per cwt, and I expect it to hold pretty steady at or just below the $1,110 per cwt we are seeing now.” 

Live prices 

Cozzens explains these higher primal cutout values are contributing to an overall national cutout value that is tracking steady, and therefore, earning producers more money at the sale barn. 

He points out there have been a few weeks with really strong prices in recent months, especially at the Sioux Falls Livestock Auction in South Dakota. 

“We are seeing strong slaughter lamb prices for 60- to 90-pound feeder lambs, and specifically looking at the three-state market of Colorado, Texas and South Dakota, the feeder and slaughter lamb average for the first half of the year tracked well above last year, with the past few weeks bringing in prices far above the five-year average,” he says.

“We are currently up 19 percent or $435 per cwt from where we were a year ago, and my expectations for the third quarter is sitting at about $210 per cwt, then a little higher at $220 to $225 for the fourth quarter,” Cozzens adds. 

Although prices have been trending higher, Cozzens reminds producers seasonal lamb prices tend to fall during the third quarter and encourages them to wait to market their lambs if at all possible. 

Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.