CAB Market Update
Federally-inspected cattle harvest was variable during the month of October.
Specific to fed cattle, the month started strong with a 498,000 weekly total. The second week was a major pullback, totaling just 468,000 head and recovering one-half of the large decline a week ago to average 489,000 head harvested.
Although packers chose to tighten product flow, fed cattle prices have plotted a higher trend, building from the mid-September $182 to $184 per hundredweight (cwt) range to the third week of Octoberʼs average of $187 per cwt.
The October price trend has noted a price rally in the past three years. The price rally was followed by further November increases in 2021-22, while last year’s October rally marked the top of the fed cattle market.
The collapse in the November 2023 market was much less due to fundamentals and highly influenced by speculative futures activity.
Market enthusiasm swells
Current market enthusiasm on the production side of the beef supply chain has swelled from the eruption of sharply higher carcass cutout values.
Using the Choice 600- to 900-pound carcass as the benchmark, the cutout price has increased $22.69 per cwt from Oct. 1 through Oct. 21.
The production decline during the second week of October spurred prices higher, while the October seasonal trend calls for cutout values to begin their fourth quarter rally by mid-month. The price uptick has been steep, and it arrived earlier than typical this October.
The Certified Angus Beef (CAB) brand cutout has, unsurprisingly, followed a similar uptick with weekly reports indicating a $20 per cwt increase through Oct. 17, with more upside yet to be charted through the current period.
The onset of middle meat demand is especially intense in this period, and widening price spreads for carcass quality are once again appearing.
However, the CAB cutout remains narrower than a year ago as record carcass weights, combined with exceptional marbling achievement, have boosted the brand’s supply. Over-supply is not a threat as the seasonal dip in industry average grading tends to mark the annual low in November.
October and December 2024 live cattle futures prices have posted an extended upward run since mid-September as futures have caught up to the weekly spot market. During the last week of October, those contracts corrected slightly lower but are seeking to maintain a level par with cash cattle.
Ribeye size becomes a factor
CAB recently focused on the top five reasons eligible carcasses fail to meet all 10 of the brand’s carcass specifications.
From our 2023 data set, carcasses with marbling scores below Modest 00 or Premium Choice captured 83 percent of carcasses missing the mark. However, as carcass weights continue to balloon this fall, attention turns to the second-most commonly missed specification – the brand’s 10- to 16-inch allowable ribeye area requirement.
Intuition suggests since hot carcass weight is also a brand specification – with a 1,100-pound maximum – record-heavy carcasses could have the highest potential to miss brand acceptance.
While carcass weight and ribeye size aren’t directly correlated, heavier carcass weights are associated with larger average ribeye area.
Research done more than a decade ago shows ribeye growth tends to continue, but at a decreasing rate, as live weight passes 1,400 pounds or so in steers.
Inclusion of a beta-agonist in many modern steer diets is also a likely factor in increasing lean muscle growth at the end of the period, increasing ribeye area measurements upon harvest. But, lean growth in the final days of the feeding period allowing heavier out-weights to be achieved is an economic benefit.
Without belaboring the topic, it’s appropriate to point out feedyard management will follow where the highest returns exist. Currently adding more pounds to cattle already on inventory is the best proposition in the market.
We anticipate the traditional annual heaviest carcass weights by mid-November. Throughout this period CAB brand carcass acceptance rate typically charts a lower seasonal trend due to declining quality grade.
This November will feature a larger-than-normal slippage of brand-eligible carcasses due to ribeye size. This occurs as average steer carcass weights continually increase, and they were averaging 950 pounds two weeks ago.
Feeders will continue to reap rewards in the cost and return equation in a market which has recently moved to higher prices.
Grid-sold cattle are, on average, capturing Choice and Prime quality premiums at a higher percentage rate this fall. Yet, yield grade and heavy-weight discounts threaten to devalue premiums for the heavy pens of steers, in addition to fewer CAB qualifiers.
Paul Dykstra is the director of supply management and analysis at CAB. He can be reached at pdykstra@certifiedangusbeef.com.
