Pork outlook: What can pork producers expect in 2025?
The pork industry is constantly up against variables and unknowns which make the future hard to predict.
On the Jan. 3 episode of Farm Journal’s Pork podcast, Host Jennifer Shike joins Rabobank Senior Animal Protein Analyst Christine McCracken, who shares her knowledge and perspective about what she sees for the pork marketplace in the year ahead.
From a young age, McCracken has actively participated in the pork industry, showcasing hogs in 4-H and FFA throughout her childhood.
She holds a bachelor’s degree in agricultural economics from the University of Georgia and a master’s degree in agricultural and natural resource economics from the University of California-Davis. She currently conducts animal protein research for North America at Rabobank.
Rabobank was founded by farmers and a group of small credit unions, and its entrepreneurial spirit and cooperative mentality have guided producers throughout its 125-year history.
A look at 2025
McCracken shares profitability is always a moving target, but she is optimistic heading into 2025.
“The good news is a lot of the trends driving better profitability at the end of 2024 are going to continue into early 2025,” she explains. “We’re going to have ongoing low feed costs, especially on meal for pig producers. At the same time, hog supplies are relatively well-balanced, which supports the market in the short run, and the industry is doing a good job controlling the aspects of the business it can impact.”
She emphasizes possible tariff increases are a primary uncertainty impacting global pork trade, encouraging producers to consider tools to reduce or eliminate these risks.
“Maintaining current biosecurity standards and focusing on herd health is an everyday priority for producers. It’s a good reminder to keep pigs healthy, as it is the only way to ensure the industry can stay profitable,” McCracken says.
Disease outbreaks in South Korea, Russia and the European Union (EU) led to production losses in the second half of 2024, limiting herd rebuilding despite effective biosecurity measures, Rabobank reports.
However, China’s moderating disease pressure should support a return to herd growth in 2025, with a slight production growth also expected in Brazil, the U.S. and southern EU countries.
She explains labor costs are an important consideration for the industry, particularly at the packer level, and refers to the recent tightening of immigration standards, which may lead to challenges similar to those faced by producers during previous supply chain disruptions.
“Not only could packers see constraints on worker availability, we would also expect higher turnover and increased absenteeism,” states McCracken. “We could also see increased issues with on-farm labor availability.”
At the end of the day, McCracken believes it’s all about controlling what can be controlled – managing risks and working with advisors to make sure producers are taking advantage of solid profit opportunities.
Navigating the pork industry
McCracken also appeared on the Dec. 26, 2024 Feedstuffs Pork Nation Focus podcast where she discussed additional strategies to bolster the pork industry.
The weekly podcast, hosted by Alltech Sales and Portfolio Director Mark Hulsebus and Farm Progress Brand Management Director Sarah Muirhead, discussed current issues facing the hog industry in 2025.
“It’s been a rough go, but there is good news as we are seeing a lot of black in the future compared to what the industry saw a year ago,” McCracken states.
Producers are taking a closer look at their financial health and finding ways to improve it, as there’s a lot of optimism for strong margins in 2025.
Even with the challenges posed by tariffs and immigration policies, it’s an exciting time to prepare for what lies ahead.
She adds, “Maintaining a trade policy with Mexico is crucial for the U.S. pork market because Mexico is consistently the largest destination for U.S. pork exports.”
In fact, Mexico represented over 30 percent of total U.S. pork production last year.
McCracken highlights the significance of the renewal of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement, which is set to be renewed at the end of this year.
“This agreement highlights how important those markets have become to the U.S. and how we really need to work on ensuring they stay open, as it will be critical for the industry,” she continues.
Hulsebus asked McCracken about Mexico’s new leadership and how it could impact the pork industry.
“The pork industry remains cautious about future policy shifts in Mexico, as new leadership could introduce changes to import regulations or tariffs,” she continues. “We are trying to figure all of this out and find solutions, but it’s politics so there will always be give and take. Maintaining solid trade relationships with key partners such as Mexico and Canada is more crucial than ever.”
Melissa Anderson is the editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.
