Annual USDA forum offers livestock and poultry outlook
The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) held its 101st Annual Agricultural Outlook Forum on Feb. 27-28 at the Crystal Gateway Marriott in Arlington, Va., where various updates were presented.
During the Livestock and Poultry Outlook, a panel of experts, including USDA World Agriculture Outlook Board Member and Livestock Analyst Michael McConnell, provided information on production and pricing.
Outlook
McConnell opened the outlook session by highlighting a positive trend in total red meat and poultry production for 2024, which is expected to increase nearly one percent to 107.6 billion pounds, indicating a recovery after the decline experienced in 2023.
“The increase was due to higher pork and broiler production, as well as flat beef production,” he stated.
The projected total production of red meat and poultry in 2025 is anticipated to rise by one percent, reaching 108.4 million pounds.
This increase is expected despite a decline in beef and turkey production, as gains in the pork and broiler sectors are predicted to compensate for these decreases.
McConnell added, “Tighter supplies of cattle and resilient demand for beef are expected to support fed steer prices, and hog prices are expected to increase as well. Broiler prices are forecast to increase, while turkey prices are forecast to rebound in 2025 after two years of price declines resulting in reduced production in 2024.”
Cattle and beef outlook
The cattle inventory contracted for the sixth consecutive year in 2024, according to USDA’s recent cattle report, estimating the number of cattle and calves as of Jan. 1 was 86.7 million head, marking the lowest level since 1951.
McConnell reported the 2024 calf crop was estimated at 33.5 million head, suggesting better utilization of the breeding stock and survival rate for calves during 2024.
“Although the decline in cattle numbers slowed and there was a robust calf crop, the herd is not currently expected to expand in 2025,” he said.
Due to a smaller cow population and strong feeder cattle prices indicating value for future calves, cow slaughter in 2024 has decreased by 15 percent, a trend expected to continue into 2025.
McConnell remarked, “It will likely take more than the upcoming year for producers to build the breeding herd to the point where herd expansion is realized.”
According to recent reports, the total number of cattle on feed in U.S. feedlots of all sizes as of Jan. 1 was 14.3 million head, a one percent decline from the previous year.
“Commercial beef production in 2025 is forecast to decrease nearly two percent to 26.6 billion pounds. Tighter domestic feeder supplies are expected to constrain feedlot placements, which will result in lower steer and heifer slaughter,” McConnell mentioned.
Additionally, McConnell shared, in 2025, beef exports are forecasted to decrease by seven percent, while beef imports are forecast to increase three percent.
Hogs and pork outlook
McConnell continued to report on the hog and pork outlook for 2025, noting commercial pork production for the year is forecasted to increase by three percent to 28.5 billion pounds.
According to the December 2024 Quarterly Hogs and Pigs report, the breeding herd was virtually unchanged from the previous year and producer farrowing intentions for the first half of 2025 are above 2024 levels, indicating growth in the domestic pig crop is expected to support higher commercial slaughter and pork production in 2025.
“For 2025, pork exports are forecast to increase three percent to 7.3 billion pounds, and the increased domestic production and continued strong international demand for pork is expected to support U.S. exports,” he remarked. “For 2025, imports are forecast to increase two percent to 1.17 billion pounds, reflecting continued demand, particularly for specialty pork products.”
National base lean hog prices, averaging 51 to 52 percent lean, are expected to reach $65 per hundredweight (cwt) in 2025, which represents a three percent increase from the 2024 average of $61.56 per cwt.
While the availability of hogs is projected to increase, prices will be bolstered by strong domestic and international demand, as well as higher beef prices.
Sheep and lamb outlook
McConnell further discussed the future of the sheep and lamb industry, stating, “For 2025, commercial lamb and mutton production is forecast to be 134 million pounds, essentially unchanged from 2024.”
The Jan. 1 Sheep and Goats report estimated the total inventory of sheep and lambs at 5.05 million head, up slightly from the 2024 estimate of 5.03 million head, marking the first year-over-year increase since 2016.
When discussing trade, McConnell explained, “Imports in 2025 are forecast at 365 million pounds, while the U.S. market is expected to remain attractive for exporters.”
It’s reported lamb prices in 2024 began the year above 2023 levels, although they declined in the second half of the year.
However, McConnell noted the slightly larger domestic inventory numbers and stable supplies resulted in the 2025 National Choice/Prime slaughter lamb price forecast of $182 per cwt, a five percent decline from the 2024 average of $191.31 per cwt.
Broiler meat
and turkey outlook
McConnell stated, “For 2025, broiler meat production is forecast to increase one percent to 47.1 billion pounds on lower feed costs, higher prices for competing meats and steadily increasing average live bird weights.”
He indicated growth rate may be limited by flock size, which was four percent lower as of Jan. 1 compared to a year earlier, along with hatching rates continuing to recover toward historical averages.
“U.S. broiler meat exports for 2025 are forecast to decrease two percent to 6.61 billion pounds,” he added. “This comes off of the seven percent decline seen in 2024 exports.”
However, the national composite wholesale broiler price is forecast to average $1.32 per pound in 2025.
“Turkey production for 2025 is forecast to decrease three percent to 4.97 billion pounds,” he stated. “Flock depopulations in late 2024 and into early 2025 due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) are expected to continue to constrain production in 2025.”
It’s forecasted turkey exports for 2025 will decrease four percent to 465 million pounds due to lower production and less competitive prices, the 2025 price forecast predicts a three percent increase to 97 cents per pound.
Eggs
To close his presentation, McConnell provided an update on the egg industry, noting total U.S. egg production in 2025 is expected to be 8.96 billion dozen, a nearly one percent decline from 2024.
“This outlook is based on the assumption of no additional animal disease outbreaks from what was reported at the time of the World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimates release on Feb. 11,” he stated.
Reports show, as of Jan. 1, the table egg laying flock was estimated at 304.3 million birds, a two percent decline from the previous year, with subsequent HPAI reports likely further reducing the table egg laying flock.
“Total egg production is not expected to increase relative to the previous year until the second half of 2025,” he added. “For 2025, exports are forecast to decline 11 percent due to the continuing tight supply of eggs, while imports are forecast at 32 million dozen, an increase of seven percent.”
Melissa Anderson is the editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.
