Chicken meat prices hold steady despite rising egg costs

Consumers may have noticed the cost of chicken meat has not climbed in relation to soaring egg prices amid production losses due to highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).

Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service experts say several factors make meat production broiler farms more resilient to outbreaks, keeping prices relatively stable.

Chicken meat prices versus eggs

Dr. Greg Archer, AgriLife Extension poultry specialist and associate professor in the Texas A&M Department of Poultry Science, said HPAI outbreaks in broiler houses have not impacted meat prices for a few reasons.

Broiler chickens that end up in grocery stores and on restaurant menus are produced in five- to seven-week cycles. Compared to egg-laying hens, which can be in production for years, broiler chickens have a much shorter window of time to potentially be exposed to the pathogen causing avian influenza.  

Broiler farms also hold fewer birds, he said. Farms typically consist of four to six production houses which may hold 40,000 birds. This means any outbreak could impact 160,000 to 240,000 birds, whereas a commercial egg production farm might house over one million birds.

It also takes broiler farms much less time to resume production after an outbreak, Archer noted. 

Following an outbreak, the production houses are cleaned, sanitized and monitored to ensure the pathogen is not present on the farm. This process could take a few months, and the farm could then begin the production cycle.

It could take six months for a commercial egg farm to resume production and even longer to reach full capacity, he said.

“The impact on chicken meat just hasn’t showed up in the grocery store and people’s pocketbooks so far because of the nature of the poultry industry,” he said. “HPAI is impacting farms and farmers, but it would take widespread outbreaks to impact production and supplies.”

Chicken production keeps prices stable

Dr. David Anderson, AgriLife Extension economist and professor in the Texas A&M Department of Agricultural Economics, said chicken prices have gone up year-over-year, but production has not been the reason.

“It comes down to the scale of losses within the context of production,” he said. “We’ve had outbreaks at broiler farms, but it’s relatively small compared to the number of chickens in production.”

For perspective, U.S. broiler farms produced 796 million chickens in January. The U.S. Department of Agriculture January livestock report showed around 2.2 million broilers were lost to HPAI in December.

Wholesale boneless, skinless chicken breasts are higher at $1.75 per pound, compared to $1.26 per pound this time last year, Anderson said.

Another factor weighing on chicken prices is the demand for different production weights for grocer and restaurant markets, Anderson said. Restaurants serving chicken sandwiches want breast cuts specific to the product they serve, and regional farms may be contracted to meet this demand.

Anderson believes the slight increase is related to a combination of demand dynamics and chicken’s competitive price in relation to beef, alongside a historical upward seasonal price trend in the spring and summer.

“It’s interesting what chicken offerings from chain restaurants have done to the poultry market over the past 10 years,” he said. “If they roll out something new or special, it can be a market-moving event because there is so much volume.”

Uncertainty still ahead

Anderson and Archer said the U.S. poultry industry may still face significant challenges before warmer temperatures end the HPAI season. 

HPAI strains continue to be found in migratory birds and other species, including dairy cattle.

Egg production flocks dropped to 291.5 million birds as of Feb.1, compared to 304.1 million on Jan. 1, Anderson said. He expects to see similar losses in the March 1 report.

Adam Russell is a communications specialist for Texas A&M AgriLife. This article was originally published by AgriLifeToday on March 6.