A cold and snowy winter is predicted in the Cowboy State

Official meteorological winter is just around the corner, although most of Wyoming and parts of the West have already received some heavy snow and frigid temperatures the past few weeks. 

According to a Sept. 7 Cowboy State Daily article by Andrew Rossi, Meteorologist Don Day says this is a foreshadowing of what is to come during the next few months, in what he believes will be colder and snowier than last winter. 

“This is the short version. While North America endures an El Niño-La Niña whiplash transition phase, the signs strongly suggest Wyoming has a real winter on the way,” Day says.

“When digesting these long-range forecasts, broad statements don’t work well for everybody,” he continues. “There could be some parts of Wyoming with a pretty cold, snowy winter and some parts of Wyoming may be spared from all of this. But, overall, everybody will have more winter this year than last year.” 

Key factors 

Experts agree there are several key factors influencing the weather pattern for the coming winter months, and the most notable of these is La Niña, a phenomenon which occurs when water temperatures near the equator in the eastern Pacific Ocean remain below the historical average for an extended period of time, according to AccuWeather. 

“This winter, an emerging La Niña is anticipated to influence the upcoming winter patterns, especially our precipitation predictions,” notes Jon Gottschalk, chief of the National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center’s Operation Prediction Branch.  

The second factor, according to AccuWeather, is the polar vortex. 

AccuWeather Senior Meteorologist and Long-Range Expert Paul Pastelok believes, based on data from previous years with a similar setup to this year’s upcoming winter season, February will likely see the most apparent cold blasts from the polar vortex. 

“A third factor is the temperature of the water in the Gulf of Mexico and the northern and northeastern Pacific. Water temperatures in the gulf are expected to be higher than historical averages, which can translate to mild air masses for the central and eastern U.S.,” AccuWeater explains. “The warmer-than-average water temperatures in the northern Pacific could alter the storm track at times during the winter for the West Coast, impacting the entire U.S.”

Day also points out wind patterns in the stratosphere will play a role in this winter’s weather conditions. Although he notes these patterns change about every 14 months, he believes the current pattern – which is different from last year – should hold steady through this winter.

Colder, snowier conditions

Since La Niña is expected to last through March, Day believes Wyoming’s coldest months – December through February – will likely be even colder than usual. 

“What we’ll see a lot of times in the pattern we’re expecting is the coldest parts of Wyoming will be the northern and eastern counties,” he tells Cowboy State Daily. “The western and southwest parts of the state will sometimes get shielded from northern intrusions of cold air. I think the coldest, harshest parts of winter will be in central, northern and eastern Wyoming.”

Day also expects frigid temperatures to last longer. 

“La Niña winters can cause some pretty good Arctic outbreaks, especially in the beginning. We should expect the winter to have a few cold snaps where we see subzero temperatures, and they’re likely to stick around a bit longer,” he says. 

In addition to colder temperatures, Day says some of Wyoming will also see above-normal snowfall this year.

“The odds are highest central, northern and eastern Wyoming will get the best snowpack if this happens,” he notes. “Last winter, the snow was directed to the south because of El Niño. This winter, it will likely be directed more to the north.”

“This doesn’t mean there’ll be a lack of snow in the south,” he adds. “It’s just the pattern that made northern Wyoming snowless last year is not there this year. I’m expecting the northern and northwest mountain ranges and the Northern Plains will do quite well with snow this year.”

Ongoing drought

Although increased snowfall generally means greater snowpack, the NOAA notes the moderate to extreme drought conditions across much of the Great Plains and portions of the Rocky Mountains are expected to persist through coming winter months. 

The Oct. 29 National Drought Summary, published by the U.S. Drought Monitor (USDM), notes, “Dryness again dominated the High Plains region, with only areas of far southeast Nebraska, northeast Kansas, northeast Wyoming and northwest South Dakota recording any significant precipitation.” 

The USDM also notes temperatures have been unseasonably warm for the region, with most areas reporting temperatures four to eight degrees above normal. 

Additionally, USDM notes during the week of Oct. 29, drought expanded and intensified over western North Dakota, western and southern South Dakota and western, eastern and northern Nebraska. 

“In northeast Colorado, moderate drought and abnormally dry conditions expanded, with both moderate and severe drought expanding in southeast Colorado,” the USDM report reads. “Southeast Wyoming saw expansion of moderate, severe and extreme drought, while eastern Montana had severe and extreme drought expand to the west.”  

Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.