UNL educators discuss expansion of the nation’s beef cow herd

As of Jan. 1, the U.S. Department of Agriculture reported the nation’s cattle inventory at 87.2 million head, a decrease from the year prior and the lowest level reported in 73 years.

Total inventory consisted of 28.2 million head of beef cows, 9.36 million head of milk cows, 33.6 million calves and 14.4 million head of cattle on feed.  

As the cattle cycle continues to expand and contract, University of Nebraska-Lincoln (UNL) Extension Educators Alfredo DiConstanzo and Connor Biehler dived into the circumstances surrounding the next inventory incline and what this means for cattle producers in an Oct. 30 UNL Beefwatch Newsletter. 

Inventory in a steady decline

DiConstanzo and Biehler note the last peak in the U.S. beef herd inventory occurred in 2019 when 31.6 million beef cattle were reported, 3.4 million head or 11 percent more than the 28.2 million reported at the start of this year. 

However, the two educators note it is unlikely the beef herd will rebuild to the same levels seen in 2019 and beyond. 

“Many factors will affect the size of the U.S. beef herd at the next peak. Some might consider beef-on-dairy crosses will likely affect herd expansion. However, our perspective on this is, unless dairy cows are used to produce fullblood beef-breed embryos, the effects of breeding dairy cows to beef sires on beef production are already absorbed by the industry,” they explain. 

They also note, since 1975, the beef cow inventory peak has steadily diminished – 45.7 million head in 1975, 39.2 million head in 1982, 35.3 million head in 1996 and 32.7 million head in 2005.

Another factor is the aging cow/calf producer population, in addition to low numbers of young producers getting into the business.  

“It is quite possible the U.S beef herd will never reach beyond 29 million cows again,” DiConstanzo and Biehler state.

Rebuilding the nation’s herd

When rounding to a starting point of 28 million beef cows, every percentage point lost in productivity represents 280,000 calves, according to DiConstanzo and Biehler. 

They point out, if the next herd expansion is to reach 29 million cows by the next cycle peak, beef producers must do one of three things – prevent one million heifers from entering the feedlot, improve survival and breeding success by four percentage points in existing inventories of heifers destined for herd replacement or a combination of the two. 

“Raising more calves than needed for harvest or breeding is a necessity of the system.  Building efficiency while rebuilding the herd should prevent excessive inventory swings which lead to excessive price swings. Lower cycle-over-cycle swings in beef cow inventory since the peak of 1975 are reflective of a unified commitment by the industry for greater production efficiency,” they explain.

DiConstanzo and Biehler note knowing the factors and costs of raising replacement heifers is critical for beef herd expansion, and to better understand this, an analysis was conducted at the Haskell Agriculture Laboratory in Concord, Neb. on 87 heifers sourced from various producers.

According to DiConstanzo and Biehler, heifers were kept in pens for an average of 220 days; fed a diet of corn silage, alfalfa hay, wet distillers’ grains and mineral supplement and bred using timed artificial insemination. 

Seventy-one heifers, or 82 percent, were confirmed pregnant and costs totaled $2.85 per heifer per day – $627 per heifer or $768 per pregnancy. 

“Therefore, under conditions of the program – with an 82 percent pregnancy rate – if a heifer was retained in the fall of 2023 for replacement, the total cost of her first pregnancy would be $2,400. The value of the heifer in the fall of 2023 was $1,620 and it cost $768 to achieve pregnancy,” DiConstanzo and Biehler explain. 

“As producers look at current prices, there may be an opportunity to retain heifers at similar prices as a year ago. Expect to spend from $2,300 to $2,600 to raise a pregnant heifer,” they continue. “However, a thorough analysis of critical control points such as energy, protein and mineral supply, water quality, winter housing, heat abatement and gentle handling is needed to ensure breeding success in 2025.”

Hannah Bugas is the managing editor of the Wyoming Livestock Roundup. Send comments on this article to roundup@wylr.net.