Connecting Ag to Climate: Will a White Christmas be in the Forecast?

Earlier this week, I woke up to a very light and unexpected dusting of snow on my porch.

I had checked a private weather app on my phone, so I knew there was a 10 percent chance of precipitation. But I wrote off the chance of actually seeing any snow because of the low probability. Plus, the app didn’t offer any information about how much snow to expect, if any. 

This said, I also keep a close watch on the National Weather Service (NWS) Office’s social media pages for my region, where I learned a weather system was moving into western and southeastern Wyoming, with a slight chance of snow moving into central Wyoming. 

Snow is tricky to forecast, but its arrival can have major implications for those of us in agriculture. 

Lance VandenBoogart, warning coordination meteorologist at the NWS Regional Office in Riverton, talked about the use of Probabilistic Snow Forecasting during the Nov. 21 Wyoming Conditions and Outlooks Webinar, hosted by the Wyoming Conditions Monitoring Team (WCMT). 

“We have a tool which hopefully gives some confidence in making decisions about snowfall – how much you’re going to get and the impacts you might have,” VandenBoogart noted. “Probabilistic Snow Forecasting is kind of a catchy term right now, but it’s the future of weather forecasting because the future is always uncertain.”

Also called “ensemble forecasting,” this strategy combines many weather models to give meteorologists a range of possibilities, which works well for understanding a “most likely amount” or “at least this much” amount of snow when a weather system moves in. 

“The reality is there’s a range of possibilities, and we all know a snow forecast, even when it is a fairly big range, sometimes falls outside of the forecasted range,” said VandenBoogart. “We have about 100 weather models now in the short term, and we can take into account all of their different opinions on what exactly is happening in the atmosphere and how much snow is going to be squeezed out of those clouds.”

The Probabilistic Snow Forecasting tool covers snowfall expected in the next 24 to 72 hours, when NWS can ensure a level of confidence. 

A set of maps are created for different scenarios based on inches of snowfall expected, from less than one inch to more than 18 inches. 

While I wish I could forecast a White Christmas across Wyoming, the best I can do is to keep checking the NWS website to access the Probabilistic Snow Forecasting tool a few days before Christmas to see the latest forecast. 

The next Wyoming Conditions and Outlooks Webinar will be held at 1 p.m. on Jan. 16, 2025. To register, e-mail Windy Kelley at wkelley1@uwyo.edu. Learn more about the monthly webinars and other resources available through the WCMT at drought.wyo.gov. 

Averi Reynolds is an ORISE science communications fellow for the USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub, serving Wyoming, Montana, Colorado, Nebraska, South Dakota and North Dakota. The USDA Northern Plains Climate Hub strives to provide unbiased information about adaptation and mitigation strategies for ranchers, farmers and foresters to help increase their operations’ resilience to weather variability and a changing climate. For more information on the Northern Plains Climate Hub, visit climatehubs.usda.gov/hubs/northern-plains.