La Niña is expected to return and 2025 will see a warmer long-term average

Last year at this time, Meteorologist Matt Makens stood in front of cattlemen in Orlando, Fla.

“Different stage, different location, but the outlook was La Niña,” he recalled during the opening statements of his presentation for the 2025 CattleFax Outlook Seminar. 

Producers were in the middle of a dry period which comes with the pattern, and since June 2024, Makens said the country was hit with one of the most rapid redevelopments of drought that’s ever been recorded. 

La Niña returns

Standing in front of producers gathered on Feb. 6 in San Antonio for the 2025 CattleCon, Makens said he unfortunately had to repeat himself again. 

“We are headed into the La Niña phase,” he confirmed. 

Makens reminded producers the temperature of the oceans and how their atmospheres communicate dictate weather patterns, and the conversation brought back La Niña just a few months ago. 

“It arrived in December 2024 just before Christmas,” he said. “It firmly developed right around this time, and we’re going to stay in this La Niña phase throughout the next several months.” 

Third time is the charm too. Makens predicted, in 2026, he’ll once again have the chance to tell producers La Niña is back. 

While the repeated patterns might be a disappointment to cattlemen, Makens said he uses a combination of averages predicted from years past and computer-based models to determine what’s coming up. 

“The days of using average weather does not work,” he explained. “This is a probability-based world.” 

To prepare for upcoming months, Makens encouraged producers to look at 1981, 1993, 1996, 2004, 2006, 2017 and 2021 in their red books, as those were some of the years he used to compile his presentation. 

What’s to come 

When wheat was planted last year, the ag industry was looking good in December, thanks to some rain from late October and early November. As the first few months of 2025 roll through, Makens said there’s an obvious cold issue. There will be more to discuss in mid-March, but he guesses there’s more cold to come.

Despite an upcoming drop in temperatures, Makens said 2025 will see a warmer long-term average. This rings especially true for the northern High Plains, as this increase in temperature will occur rapidly in April. There will be some snowfall for the region, but nothing Makens would label as abundant. 

The Canadian prairies will start to dry off until July, rounding out the first half of the growing season. Canada will also see some heat, Makens added, noting cooler pockets will only stretch to central and eastern corn country. 

On a more positive note, he said the dismal monsoon from last year will have more of an effect this year. 

“The monsoon is moisture which moves in from Mexico to Arizona, southern California, southern Nevada, southern Utah into New Mexico, parts of Colorado, maybe the panhandle and Nebraska,” he remarked. 

Models don’t currently showcase the monsoon Makens is predicting, but he believes within the next two months, it’ll appear. 

Speaking of moisture, Makens said there’s good news for the southern and southwestern prairies from May to July. On the precipitation map, he sees a bit of green in New Mexico but warns it may shift either towards southern California or western parts of Texas. 

Though the drought has moved across the Pacific Northwest, Northern Plains and Canadian prairies, Makens said the monsoon will help alleviate those effects. 

In the summer, he sees the second half of the corn season having a good start then tapering off. It’s bad timing, but Makens predicted through Iowa, northern Illinois and southern Wisconsin, some areas of the corn region will be “downright dry” from mid-June to mid-July. 

“There’s going to be a pocket there, and you’re going to have a flash drought,” he said, labeling it “bad timing.” 

August into November will likely reflect 2024, and Makens said a dry winter will land the country in another La Niña year. 

While it’s not news producers likely wanted to hear, Makens said the industry just needs to hold out. He has hopes the La Niña phase will be closing out within the next few years, and the country will see more moisture in the next five to 10 years.

Megan Silveira is the managing editor of Angus Journal and can be reached by visiting angus.org. This article was originally published in Angus Journal on Feb. 19.