Don’t expect egg supply to rebound soon

The six dollar carton of eggs may be a shock, but it is not going to look any different in coming months. Perhaps one’s weekend errand routine consists of traveling to three different stores before hitting the jackpot and snagging the last dozen eggs – don’t plan on ditching this ritual any time soon either.

With the explosion of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI) across the country, poultry producers are left scrambling to fill contracts and get eggs to where they are needed. And those who have been hit by the virus have a long road to recovery before their flock numbers are back to normal.

“There are a lot of steps which need to happen in a certain order,” says Becky Joniskan, president of the Indiana State Poultry Association. 

She adds it could take upward of six months to raise egg-laying birds to maturity and make a flock productive again.

What needs to happen?

Before producers can begin repopulating, the U.S. poultry industry must get HPAI under control. Joniskan shares all efforts are being put toward combating the virus. 

Larger commercial facilities will take longer to recover, notes Darrin Karcher, associate professor of animal sciences at Purdue University. Sites with one million birds could take up to a year to repopulate and return to normal production.

A series of steps must happen for producers to build back their flocks, Joniskan notes. When a site is affected, the producer must first depopulate all birds at the site.

Once the site has been cleared to repopulate, it could take upwards of 18 weeks before they start receiving hens which have reached reproductive maturity. This step is affected by breeding bird availability and hatchery capacity.

“There’s a lot of investment, timing and effort that goes into getting a hen into her productive state and keeping her well and healthy while she’s there,” Joniskan says.

Economic impact

Aside from soaring egg prices, this recent outbreak affects jobs in the poultry industry.

Damages from HPAI in 2015 included $2.6 billion in lower output from the poultry industry and 15,000 jobs lost. There were 48 million birds affected that year. 

So far, this outbreak has hit 160 million birds, according to Karcher.

“We know it’s going to have a much bigger impact, not just on the national economy,” Karcher says. “It doesn’t matter what state you’re in. I would expect to see an impact on the economy and jobs lost as we continue to fight it.”

Producers hit with HPAI also feel the economic impact. While they receive indemnity payments from the U.S. Department of Agriculture to cover some of the value of birds lost to the disease, these dollars aren’t equivalent to normal operation and sales. 

Some producers may even choose to exit the industry due to the financial impact from HPAI.

The economic impact will hit states like Indiana and Ohio especially hard, given their rank in multiple poultry production areas, and although these states are prominent poultry producers, they may also take longer to recover as egg supply is routed to other parts of the country to meet demand. 

However, recovery should look about the same for consumers across the country as supply and demand level out and prices return to normal.

Allison Lynch is a staff writer for Indiana Prairie Farmer. This article was originally published in Indiana Prairie Farmer on March 10.